GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-17 13:49Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The report suggests that coal prices are likely to end the year at their highest point due to increased regulatory checks on production, resilient demand, and potential capacity increases disrupting market expectations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index was at 3,523.37 points, down 0.77%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.14 percentage points, ranking 27th among CITIC sectors [3][83]. Production and Supply - In July, the average daily output of raw coal in China hit a new low since July 2023, marking the first year-on-year decline since May 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the National Energy Administration's recent measures to check overproduction are crucial for stabilizing coal prices, indicating long-term supply risks [2][3]. Price Trends - Coal prices saw a significant rebound after hitting a low of 618 CNY/ton in mid-June, driven by seasonal demand and regulatory news [3]. - As of August 15, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 696 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15 CNY/ton [9][39]. Demand Dynamics - The report notes that while downstream demand remains stable, the enthusiasm for purchasing coal has diminished due to rising prices, leading to a cautious approach from coal mines [9][40]. - The report emphasizes that the overall demand from downstream industries, including metallurgy and chemicals, remains stable despite fluctuations in coal prices [18]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, highlighting their resilience in the current market [12]. - It also suggests monitoring the impact of regulatory measures on production and the potential for increased imports of coal [11][12]. Inventory and Stock Levels - The report indicates that coal inventories at ports have been declining, with a total of 2,364 million tons reported as of August 15, down 102 million tons week-on-week [22]. - The report also notes that the overall inventory levels in the coal market remain low, which supports price stability [47].