7月国内潮玩大盘稳增，小菜园开店步入加速期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant differentiation within the industry, particularly noting that the card category is under pressure. The performance of various segments, such as the toy industry and light medical beauty, shows strong growth, with companies like Xiaocaiyuan and Xinyang achieving notable revenue and profit increases [4][45] - The report indicates that the social services sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, with specific recommendations for investment in tourism, education, catering, and beauty care sectors [5] Summary by Sections 1. Toy Industry - In July 2025, the online sales of the toy category maintained steady growth, with a total sales amount of 1.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% [16] - The performance of various toy subcategories was strong, with blind boxes and anime peripherals showing significant growth rates of 55% and 70% respectively [17][21] - The number of offline toy stores reached 3,865, with a net increase of 131 stores, and the overall offline store efficiency grew by 8% year-on-year [28] 2. Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan achieved a revenue of 2.714 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.52%, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, up 35.66% [34][35] - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.46%, a historical high, and employee costs as a percentage of revenue decreased to 24.56% [34][40] - The company plans to accelerate its store opening pace, aiming to exceed 800 stores by the end of 2025 and reach a thousand-store scale by 2026 [34][42] 3. Xinyang - Xinyang's light medical beauty chain business saw revenue of 144 million yuan in Q2 2025, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 426% [45] - The company has expanded its operational scale, with 31 stores across 9 cities, and 25 stores generating positive cash flow [45][48] - The upcoming launch of the NAN beauty brand is expected to enhance market presence, with five new products set to be released [56][59] 4. Travel and Consumer Services - The report notes that the social services sector has lagged behind the broader market indices, with specific sectors like education and sports showing stronger performance [5][26] - Domestic air travel has seen a slight increase, while international flights have decreased, indicating a mixed recovery in the travel sector [60][64] - Visitor numbers to Hong Kong from the mainland and globally have shown positive trends, with a week-on-week increase of 15.4% and 16.9% respectively [65][67]