Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][12][83][85] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Price is the key variable for economic recovery. The price recovery at the supply level is starting to show at the meso - level, but the economic fundamentals in July were poor, and the improvement of CPI and PPI was less than expected. Consumption and exports may face pressure in the second half of the year [2][10][11][83] - The recent correction in the bond market is due to the systematic and active reduction of duration by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading, which has nothing to do with redemptions and economic fundamentals. When many institutions reduce their bond investment duration, a new market may start [2][11][83] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trending market and requires correct band - trading. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness [4][12][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to June. From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than in June [13] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with a subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point, starting from September 1, 2025, for a period of 1 year [4][16] - On August 15, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2025", continuing the moderately loose tone, and the probability of recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low. The monetary policy focuses on implementation, emphasizing "interest rate guidance", "preventing idle funds", "improving the efficiency of fund use", and "making good use of various structural monetary policy tools" [4][16] - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% [18] 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of August 10, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 45,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 40,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. As of August 15, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 144,668,300 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 46.1% [22] - As of August 1, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.739 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%, and the total retail sales were 4.05 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [27] 2.2 Transportation - As of August 10, the container throughput of ports was 6.792 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. As of August 15, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0767 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [28] - As of August 10, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.53 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. The railway freight volume was 78.697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.33 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [35][37] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of August 13, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 77.5%, a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of August 14, the average asphalt operating rate was 27.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 percentage points [43] - As of August 14, the soda ash operating rate was 87.1%, a year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 76.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9 percentage points. As of August 15, the average PX operating rate was 85.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.9% [46] 2.4 Real Estate - As of August 15, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.209 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. The total number of commercial housing transactions was 12,667 units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.6% [48][50] 2.5 Prices - As of August 15, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 25.7%, and a 2.2% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%, and a 7.4% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of six key fruits was 7.0 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3%, and a 4.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago [51] - As of August 15, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%, and a 9.9% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.5 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%, and a 5.4% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3321.2 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and a 4.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [52] - As of August 15, the average spot price of iron ore was 792.9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and a 2.7% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%, and a 2.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [58] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On August 15, overnight Shibor was 1.40%, up 8.30 BP from August 11. R001 was 1.44%, up 9.33 BP; R007 was 1.49%, up 3.21 BP. DR001 was 1.40%, up 8.75 BP; DR007 was 1.48%, up 3.94 BP. IBO001 was 1.44%, up 9.11 BP; IBO007 was 1.52%, up 5.32 BP [60] - Most Treasury bond yields rose. On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.37%, 1.59%, 1.75%, and 2.05% respectively, up 1.3 BP, 4.9 BP, 5.8 BP, and 9.0 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.53%, 1.74%, 1.86%, and 2.15% respectively, up 3.2 BP, 7.5 BP, 7.9 BP, and 9.8 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.38%, 1.69%, and 1.84% respectively, down 0.7 BP, up 3.4 BP, and up 2.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - On August 15, the yields of AAA - rated 1 - month and 1 - year and AA + - rated 1 - month and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.47%, 1.64%, 1.49%, and 1.67% respectively, up 1.1 BP, 2.0 BP, 1.1 BP, and 1.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 6 BP, 7 BP, 11 BP, and 9 BP respectively from August 8 [75] - On August 15, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.18 respectively, down 11 and 3 pips respectively from August 8 [76] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and has been continuously decreasing in the past three weeks. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.2 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to last week (August 8) [79] - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past three weeks, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.8 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.7 years, an increase of about 0.14 years compared to last week (August 8) [81] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report is firmly bullish on the bond market. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5Y national - share second - tier bonds may fall below 1.9% [4][12][85] - Be bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Strongly recommend perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks. Pay attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [4][12][85]
利率周报：经济压力上升，持续看多债市-20250817
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-17 14:48