反内卷下，钢铁盈利的修复从何而来？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the recovery of steel profitability under the "anti-involution" trend is primarily driven by upstream iron ore concessions, contrasting with the previous cycle where concessions came from downstream [2][6] - The anticipated improvement in the steel industry's supply-demand balance could enhance long-term profitability, although there are ongoing doubts about the sustainability of this recovery [6][28] - The analysis indicates that the profit distribution within the industry chain has shifted significantly, with iron ore now having a stronger capacity to offer concessions, which could benefit the steel sector [7][29] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand has weakened, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 3.60% year-on-year but decreasing by 2.06% month-on-month [5] - Daily average pig iron production has slightly increased to 2.4066 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12.04% [5] - Total steel inventory has continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.13% [5] Price Trends - Recent price trends show Shanghai rebar dropping to 3,300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 37 CNY/ton, while the profit based on a one-month lag in costs is 243 CNY/ton [5] Future Projections - The report projects that if the supply-demand gap improves by 50 million tons, the average price of rebar could increase by 164.87 CNY/ton [7] - A decrease in iron ore prices by 15 USD/ton could lead to a reduction in steel production costs by 210 CNY/ton [7] - The overall expectation is that iron ore price declines will primarily benefit the steel sector, with only a small portion passed on to downstream industries [7][29] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [28] 2. Stocks with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance recovery, like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative [29] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [29]