Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-17 15:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [1][13][25] Core Insights - JD's retail growth remains strong, with effective synergies between e-commerce and food delivery, leading to a significant increase in active users and shopping frequency [7][9][11] - The company's revenue for Q2 FY25 reached RMB 356.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding expectations [8][10] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 FY25 was RMB 7.4 billion, down 48.9% year-on-year, but still surpassing forecasts [8][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084.66 billion - 2024: RMB 1,158.82 billion - 2025E: RMB 1,328.95 billion - 2026E: RMB 1,425.11 billion - 2027E: RMB 1,522.26 billion - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the upcoming years are: - 2025E: RMB 26.96 billion - 2026E: RMB 47.73 billion - 2027E: RMB 60.53 billion [16][10][13] Operational Performance - JD's food delivery business has shown healthy growth, with daily orders exceeding 25 million across 1.5 million partner restaurants in 350 cities [11][12] - The company's operational efficiency improved, achieving a gross margin of 15.9% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.7% in Q2 FY25 [10][12] - The retail operating margin for Q2 FY25 was 4.5%, while logistics operating margin decreased to 3.8% [10][12] Strategic Initiatives - JD has launched a RMB 10 billion subsidy program for food delivery, which has led to increased competition and short-term profitability pressure [10][12] - The company is focusing on quality food delivery and has introduced innovative models like the "Seven Fresh Kitchen" partnership, which quickly gained traction [12][13] Market Position - JD's core supply chain capabilities remain robust, supporting long-term growth in both retail and new business segments [13][10] - The report highlights the positive impact of national subsidy policies and an expanding active user base on the performance of power-consuming categories [13][9]