美豆周度报告-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]