Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Core Viewpoint - Market trading is gradually returning to fundamentals, and the alloy market is oscillating. The alloy prices showed a weak and oscillating trend this week. Affected by the weakening sentiment of coking coal and coke, the alloy market is gradually returning to fundamentals. With potential continuous expansion of supply and weakening demand support, alloy prices may face pressure after the dissipation of the market sentiment [3][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - Futures Price: This week, the Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 contract oscillated, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 795,571 lots and an open interest of 60,480 lots, a decrease of 58,558 lots week-on-week. The main contract shifted to Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511, closing at 5,932 yuan/ton on Friday. The Manganese Silicon 2509 contract also oscillated, closing at 6,026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1,200,969 lots and an open interest of 153,180 lots, a decrease of 74,734 lots week-on-week [7]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of Silicon Ferrosilicon in major regions across the country were relatively stable this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B Silicon Ferrosilicon in major producing areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of Silicon Manganese in major regions across the country ranged from 5,800 to 6,100 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of -50 to 120 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - Supply: This week, the output of Silicon Ferrosilicon was 112,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,800 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +3.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.18%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Gansu (46.7%) and Shaanxi (31.8%) [22][23]. - Demand: - Steel - making Demand: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [34]. - Non - steel Demand: The output of stainless - steel crude steel in July was 2.8241 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The planned output of stainless - steel crude steel in August is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in July was 68,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The export volume of Silicon Ferrosilicon in June was 34,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [34]. - Inventory: - Sample Enterprise Inventory: As of August 15, the inventory of 60 Silicon Ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 65,180 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,590 tons. - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: As of August 15, the number of Silicon Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 week-on-week, equivalent to a stock of 104,580 tons, with an accumulation of 6,350 tons this week. - Steel Mill Inventory: In July, the average available days of Silicon Ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days (-1.13 days), with 13.22 days in the northern region (-0.57 days), 15 days in the eastern region (-1.71 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [43]. - Profit: The spot and futures profits of Silicon Ferrosilicon expanded following the market. The weekly futures profit was 625 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4707.69%. The weekly spot profit was 143 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 53.76% and a year-on-year increase of 326.98% [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - Supply: This week, the output of Manganese Silicon was 207,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,200 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +5.4%. The weekly operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Ningxia (61.7%) and Inner Mongolia (9.3%) [57][58]. - Raw Materials: - Manganese Ore Price: Overseas mining companies' quotations for manganese ore increased. For example, South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (Mn36.9%) was 4.05 US dollars per ton - degree, an increase of 0.15 US dollars per ton - degree compared to the August offer. The port prices in Tianjin were relatively stable [64]. - Manganese Ore Supply: The global outbound volume of manganese ore increased on a week-on-week basis, but the overall shipping speed slowed down. The recent inbound volume of manganese ore at ports increased on a week-on-week basis, and the demand at Tianjin Port is expected to break through previous highs [67][68]. - Demand: - Steel - making Demand: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 3,700 tons week-on-week, but still supported the overall demand for Manganese Silicon [74]. - Inventory: - Sample Enterprise Inventory: As of August 15, the inventory of 63 Manganese Silicon sample enterprises in China was 158,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,700 tons. - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: As of August 15, the number of Manganese Silicon warehouse receipts was 74,797, a week-on-week decrease of 1,248, equivalent to a stock of 373,985 tons, with a reduction of 6,240 tons in warehouse receipts this week. There may be concentrated registration of warehouse receipts next week. - Steel Mill Inventory: In July, the average available days of Manganese Silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days (-1.25 days), with 13.37 days in the northern region (-0.56 days), 14.74 days in the eastern region (-2.12 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [82][83]. - Profit: The cost support for Manganese Silicon was relatively stable, but the profit narrowed following the price decline. The weekly futures profit was 213.72 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 8.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The weekly spot profit was - 12.28 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 155.01% [4].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-17 23:30