以史为鉴看快递“反内卷”（四）：“社保新规”落地，快递影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Social Security New Regulations" is expected to enhance social security coverage, particularly in the flexible employment market, which is crucial for increasing social security participation [2][6]. - The express delivery market faces three main challenges in social security coverage: difficulty in headquarters management, unclear labor relationships, and low willingness of workers to participate in social security [6][22]. - The new regulations are anticipated to work in tandem with the "anti-involution" initiative, potentially leading to price recovery and restoration of the network ecosystem in the express delivery sector [6][37]. Summary by Sections Social Security New Regulations - The new regulations will take effect on September 1, 2025, allowing workers to request economic compensation from employers if they terminate contracts due to the lack of social security [2][21]. - The flexible employment market, with over 240 million workers, is seen as a key area for increasing social security coverage [6][22]. Challenges in the Express Delivery Market - The express delivery sector has a low social security payment rate, primarily due to management difficulties at headquarters, unclear labor contracts, and low participation willingness among workers [6][22][32]. - The report highlights that if the express delivery industry achieves full social security coverage, the cost per delivery could increase by approximately 0.06 to 0.10 yuan [6][38]. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is likely to see price adjustments as a response to the new regulations, which could lead to a more sustainable business model [6][37]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shentong, YTO, and Zhongtong for potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in the evolving market landscape [8][66].