铁合金周报：市场情绪尚有余温，短空参与-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - For silicon manganese, the fundamentals are becoming looser, but short - term demand resilience remains due to a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory shows a downward trend but remains at a high level. With the market sentiment cooling but still lingering, short - selling or waiting and seeing is advisable, with the main contract reference range at [5954, 6274] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the fundamentals are also becoming looser. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but is still high, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended, with the main contract reference range at [5754, 6112] [52][53] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply - The national silicon manganese production has been rising for thirteen consecutive weeks. As of August 15, the total national production was 207,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,235 tons, and the operating rate was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. Northern production areas have stable operations, while southern areas like Guangxi and Guizhou have minor restarts, and Yunnan's operating rate has reached 88.21% [4][12] Demand - As of August 15, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the weekly output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 million tons. The 8 - month silicon manganese tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from July, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, a 1,500 - ton increase from July [4][17][20] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 74,797, a decrease of 1,248 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 382,200 tons, with a slower decline rate [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports were relatively stable this week. The shipment volume continued to decline, while the arrival and port clearance volumes increased significantly compared to the previous period. Coke's sixth price increase has been implemented, but the chemical coke price in the production area has not followed up this week. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,853 and 6,430 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 53 and - 530 yuan/ton respectively [4][26] Silicon Iron Supply - As of August 15, the weekly production of silicon iron was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons, and the operating rate was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had relatively stable operations, and Shaanxi had a minor restart [52][59] Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons. In August, a new round of demand was being released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The 8 - month silicon iron tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous month. The domestic magnesium market was stable and slightly stronger this week [52][63][65] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 108,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from last Friday [52] Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently, and the semi - coke price in some areas has increased slightly. The electricity price in Gansu has dropped to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and in Qinghai, it has increased to 0.375 yuan/kWh. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 49 and 148 yuan/ton respectively [52][71]