钢材周报：“反内卷”有所降温，中期关注产业逻辑-20250818

Report Title - The weekly report on steel products of Zhonghui Futures: The "anti - involution" has cooled down, and focus on the industrial logic in the medium term [1] Report Date - August 15, 2025 [2] 1. Market Overview Market Performance - This week, the black - related products first rose and then fell. Coking coal quickly declined after reaching the previous high, driving the black - related sector down. The exchange set trading limits for the coking coal 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fees, clearly aiming to cool down the market [3] Steel Supply and Demand Supply - Steel mills still have good profits and high production enthusiasm. The hot metal output continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. However, there may be production restrictions due to the military parade later. Tangshan's independent rolling mills may stop production due to environmental protection starting from August 20, and blast furnaces may also face production restrictions. There is an expectation of output contraction in the later period [3] Demand - The off - season characteristics on the demand side are obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased further compared with the previous week, with a relatively large decline in the demand for construction steel [3] Inventory - The overall inventory increased, especially the inventory of construction steel [3] 2. Strategy Suggestion - From the recent official statements and regulatory measures, there is a trend to cool down the raw material price increase in the "anti - involution" atmosphere. The current focus in the black - related sector is on coking coal. Its supply - demand contradiction is not as intense as its price performance. Coking coal production is slowly recovering, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is increasing, with marginal improvement on the supply side. The hot metal output on the demand side is relatively stable. After steel mills and coking enterprises replenished their inventories earlier, their recent procurement pace has slowed down, and the coking coal inventory in mines has changed from decreasing to increasing. The driving force for price increase in the later period may weaken. In the short term, the military parade production - restriction policy may still cause disturbances and support the price to maintain range - bound operation. However, after September, the "anti - involution" and macro logic may cool down, and there is a risk of correction after the market switches to the industrial logic [3] 3. Steel Monthly Data (July 31, 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 7080 | - 1.4 | 50583 | - 1.3 | | Crude Steel | 7966 | - 4 | 59447 | - 3.1 | | Steel Products | 12295 | 6.4 | 86047 | 5.1 | | Steel Imports | 45 | - 18.3 | 348 | - 15.7 | | Steel Exports | 984 | 10.9 | 6798 | 11.4 | [5] 4. Five - major Steel Products Weekly Data (August 15, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (10,000 tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (10,000 tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (10,000 tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 220.45 | - 0.73 | - 4% | 189.94 | - 20.85 | - 5% | 587.19 | 30.51 | - 14.97% | | Wire Rod | 82.87 | 0.71 | - 9% | 77 | - 1.05 | - 9% | 113.77 | 5.93 | - 22% | | Hot - rolled Coil | 315.59 | 0.7 | 0% | 314.75 | 8.54 | 1% | 357.47 | 0.84 | - 21% | | Cold - rolled Coil | 86.19 | 0.14 | 1.37% | 84.34 | - 2 | 1.64% | 172.66 | 1.85 | - 7.45% | | Medium and Thick Plate | 166.53 | 1.6 | 2.41% | 165.05 | 0.64 | 3.29% | 184.88 | 1.48 | - 18.53% | | Total | 871.63 | 2.42 | - 1.49% | 831 | - 15 | - 1.2% | 1416 | 40.61 | - 16.71% | [6] 5. Steel Production Steel Production Profit (August 14, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace (Change) | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity (Change) | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity (Change) | Hot - rolled Coil - Blast Furnace (Change) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 219 (-40) | 15 (-1) | - 106 (-1) | 262 (-11) | | North China | 177 (-33) | 51 (7) | - 63 (7) | 200 (-13) | | Central China | 175 (0) | 43 (-21) | - 87 (-20) | 235 (-10) | [21] 6. Steel Demand Real Estate High - frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 4%. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 8.4% [28] Cement and Concrete Demand - The cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28%. - The concrete delivery volume is relatively balanced, with an absolute level comparable to that of the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14% [31] Steel Exports - The current export volume is still at a high level. The domestic - foreign price difference of hot - rolled coils has rebounded recently [37] 7. Steel Inventory and Price Spread Rebar - The rebar basis has remained stable. The basis for the 10 - contract is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the basis for the 01 - contract is at a neutral level. - The rebar monthly spread has continued to weaken this week, and the back structure has continued to develop. There were rumors in the market this week that there will be 400,000 tons of rebar warehouse receipts later. Although the final delivery volume is unlikely to be that large, a large number of warehouse receipts will continuously suppress the 10 - contract [51][60] Hot - rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil basis has remained stable this week. - The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened slightly recently, with little change [54][62]