碳酸锂周报：总库存结构持续改善，碳酸锂高位运行-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract maintains high - level operation under the expectation of supply contraction, and is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were 50 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 111 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with last month. There are consumption subsidies and loan interest subsidies. In the US, the CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the US - Russia leaders will meet to discuss the cease - fire in Ukraine [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate output decreased slightly week - on - week but remained above 20,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of contract - processing enterprises increased, new production lines continued to ramp up, and recycling enterprises had production plans [3] Demand Side - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 262,000 units, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million units, a 28% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicle manufacturers was 229,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month decrease, with a penetration rate of 56.8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.862 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [3] Cost and Profit - This week, the ore prices increased week - on - week. The African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [4] Total Inventory - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with upstream smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, down 1,306 tons [4] Market Review - As of August 15, LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 13% from last week. The spot battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,000 yuan/ton, up 17% from last week, with the basis discount widening. The main - contract position was 400,000. The main contract fluctuated greatly this week, supported by supply - tight expectations [7] Production of Related Products - Lithium carbonate production on August 15 was 20,093 tons, down 265 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 46.97%, down 0.34% [9] - Lithium hydroxide production on August 15 was 4,710 tons, down 395 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 32.42%, down 2.72% [11] - Lithium iron phosphate production on August 15 was 70,257 tons, up 573 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 61.92%, up 0.62% [14] Inventory of Related Products - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate industry inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with warehouse - receipt inventory at 23,485 tons, up 4,656 tons [32] - As of August 15, the total lithium iron phosphate industry inventory was 43,765 tons, up 1,500 tons from last week [35] Cost - end - As of August 15, the African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [47] Profit of Related Products - As of August 15, the lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [49] - As of August 15, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 66,160 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan, and the industry profit was 3,635 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [51] - As of August 15, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,986 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan, with a loss of 907 yuan/ton, a reduction of 86 yuan from last week [53]