钢材基本面走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market showed a pattern of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and accelerating inventory accumulation this week, with the fundamentals weakening. However, the total steel inventory is still not high, the market's willingness to hold goods at low prices is acceptable, and the overall selling pressure is not significant. From the perspective of cost support, the iron ore is in a restocking state, there are still disturbing factors in the coking coal supply, and the scrap steel supply is also not very loose, so there is still support at the lower cost end. Macroeconomically, the data in July showed weak domestic demand, the real - estate continued to be weak, the investment in manufacturing and infrastructure turned negative, and the "anti - involution" policy may suppress investment, waiting for further policy efforts; overseas, the outlook is good under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and economic resilience. Overall, in the pattern of weak domestic and stable overseas macro - environment, the overall optimistic sentiment has cooled, the steel fundamentals show signs of weakening, especially the 10 - contract of rebar faces great warehouse - receipt pressure and strong resistance around 3250. However, there is still an expectation of supply contraction, and the total steel inventory is still not high, the market's willingness to hold goods at low prices is acceptable, and the cost end also has support, so the downside space is also limited. It is expected that the 10 - contract of rebar will have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil will have support around 3350 [1][2][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - In the first half of the week, affected by the news of the suspension of lithium - ore production in Ningde, the production restrictions of rolling mills and sintering in Tangshan due to the parade, and the optimistic expectations before the coal - mine safety meeting, the market speculation sentiment heated up, and the futures market fluctuated upward. In the second half of the week, as the coal - mine meeting ended and the market thought the impact was less than expected, coupled with the release of the news of position limits on coking coal, the speculation sentiment significantly cooled. In addition, the steel data this week was weak and the inventory - accumulation rhythm accelerated, so the futures market showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: This week, the daily consumption of hot metal and scrap steel in steel mills both increased slightly, indicating an increase in crude - steel production. From the perspective of production scheduling and maintenance, the hot - metal production will remain at a high level and fluctuate, and there are no obvious signs of production reduction. In terms of profits, the profits of long - process steel mills are still considerable, while the profits of short - process steel mills in some regions are lower than the valley - electricity profits, but the decline is limited, so the steel mills have insufficient motivation for self - initiated production reduction. Policy - wise, there are news of sintering production restrictions in some regions, and Tangshan's independent rolling enterprises will stop production from August 20th to September 6th due to environmental protection requirements. Whether the blast furnaces will be affected later still needs further tracking, but the production restrictions on rolling mills and sintering may indeed have a certain impact on production [2]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products showed a significant month - on - month decline this week. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was far lower than market expectations and performed poorly. The apparent demand for non - listed steel products slightly rebounded this week. Overall, the total apparent demand for steel products decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The apparent demand for steel products calculated from steel supply and inventory is still at a relatively high seasonal level, indicating that the current demand is not bad in absolute terms [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products showed an accelerated accumulation beyond the seasonal norm this week. Both the factory inventory and the social inventory increased significantly, but the total inventory is still at a relatively low seasonal level. The inventory of non - listed steel products continued to accumulate this week and is currently at a relatively high seasonal level, only lower than last year's level [2]. 3.3 Basis, Month - to - Month Spread, Regional Spread, and Variety Spread - Basis: The basis of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar narrowed this week, indicating that the spot market in Hangzhou is under certain pressure, which is also confirmed by the rapid increase in local inventory this week. In contrast, the basis in South China, Central China, and North China did not change significantly, but the basis in Guangzhou is at a relatively low level, indicating that the performance of rebar in this area is relatively poor. Overall, the rebar shows an obvious weakening trend, especially in Hangzhou, the distribution center. With a large increase in inbound volume and a significant rise in inventory, there is a tendency for reverse arbitrage in the rebar market. Meanwhile, the basis of Zhangjiagang hot - rolled coil widened significantly, and the basis of hot - rolled coil in North China, Northeast China, etc. also widened, indicating that the spot demand for hot - rolled coil still performs well [3]. - Month - to - Month Spread: Due to the weak performance of rebar in the spot market and the strong performance of hot - rolled coil in the spot market, and the large warehouse - receipt pressure on the near - month contract of rebar, the 10 - 01 contract of rebar continues to maintain a reverse - arbitrage pattern, while the hot - rolled coil shows a positive - arbitrage pattern, and this state is expected to continue [3]. - Regional Spread: In terms of the regional spread of rebar, the performance of rebar in North China is better than that in East and South China. In terms of the month - on - month performance of the regional spread of hot - rolled coil, the northern region is better than the southern region. Among them, the basis in South China remained unchanged, the basis in the northern region widened, and the spread with the northern region showed a weakening trend [3]. - Variety Spread: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to expand. From the spot level, the demand for hot - rolled coil still performs well, and there is still room for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar to expand. The 10 - contract is expected to expand to around 300 [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the spot profits of both long - process and short - process steel mills showed obvious signs of contraction. However, large long - process steel mills still have a profit of over 100, and short - process steel mills are at the break - even point of valley - electricity profits. The on - paper profits also showed a contraction trend. From the perspective of the accelerated inventory accumulation of finished products, the spot profits should further contract, and the corresponding on - paper profits are also difficult to expand. However, the rumors of production restrictions often disturb the market, so it is still necessary to wait and see for on - paper profit positions [4]. 3.5 Data Overview - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures Prices: The closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar decreased by 17, 3, and 25 respectively; the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of hot - rolled coil increased by 3, 6, and 11 respectively. The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - to - month spreads of rebar changed by - 14, 22, and - 8 respectively; the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - to - month spreads of hot - rolled coil changed by - 3, - 5, and 8 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar increased by 20, 9, and 36 respectively [6]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Prices: The aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou decreased by 10, 20, 10, and 40 respectively, while the price in Tianjin remained unchanged. The aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Shenyang increased by 10, while the price in Lecong remained unchanged. The basis of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar in Shanghai changed by - 3, - 17, and 5 respectively; the basis of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai changed by 7, 4, and - 1 respectively [7][9]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Spreads: The regional spreads of rebar (Hangzhou - Beijing, Guangzhou - Beijing, and Guangzhou - Hangzhou) changed by - 30, - 20, and 10 respectively; the regional spreads of hot - rolled coil (Lecong - Shanghai, Lecong - Shenyang, and Shanghai - Shenyang) changed by - 10, - 10, and 0 respectively. The spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang increased by 30, 20, and 10 respectively [9]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Overseas - Related Data: The FOB export prices of hot - rolled coil in China, India, and the CIS increased by 5, 10, and 15 respectively, while the prices in Japan remained unchanged, and the price in Turkey decreased by 2. The CFR import prices of hot - rolled coil in Southeast Asia, the Middle East increased by 5 and 10 respectively, while the prices in the EU remained unchanged, and the price in India decreased by 1 [10]. - Steel Fundamental Data: The production of rebar decreased by 0.73, the production of hot - rolled coil's commercial rolls increased by 0.31, and the production of internal - supply rolls increased by 0.39. The inventory of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar increased by 2.55 and 1.51 respectively. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.34, and the daily scrap - steel consumption of 255 steel mills increased by 0.6128 [10]. - Raw Material Prices and Steel Mill Profits: The price of PB powder (Rizhao Port, 61.5%) increased by 2, the price of metallurgical first - grade coke (Rizhao Port) increased by 50, the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap increased by 10, and the price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged. The profits of long - process and short - process rebar changed by - 10.45 and 78.56 respectively. The on - paper profits of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts of rebar decreased by 20.1848, 18.0712, and 29.4872 respectively [11]. - Building Materials Trading Volume: The trading volume of building materials in China increased by 11408, the trading volume in the northern region decreased by 1026, and the trading volume in the southern region increased by 4150. The trading volumes in Beijing remained unchanged, and the trading volumes in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Shanghai increased by 1350, 1700, and 830 respectively [11]. - Fubao Electric - Furnace Cost and Profit: The peak - electricity cost, flat - electricity cost, and valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces in different regions changed, and the profits also showed different degrees of change [12]. - Five - Major Steel Products: The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 8.54, the apparent demand for wire rods decreased by 1.05, the apparent demand for cold - rolled decreased by 2, and the apparent demand for medium - thick plates increased by 0.64. The production of rebar decreased by 0.73, the production of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.7, the production of wire rods increased by 0.71, the production of cold - rolled increased by 0.14, and the production of medium - thick plates increased by 1.6. The inventory of rebar increased by 30.51, the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.84, the inventory of wire rods increased by 5.93, the inventory of cold - rolled increased by 1.85, and the inventory of medium - thick plates increased by 1.48 [13].