宝城期货动力煤早报-20250818

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The domestic thermal coal price is expected to remain strong. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and with high temperatures persisting in mid - to late August, coal prices are likely to maintain a bullish trend [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - As of August 14, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 1.183 million tons, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by factors such as rainfall in major producing areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply has been slow [5]. Demand - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,500 tons [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures will be significantly higher in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeastern part of Southwest China. Hydropower substitution may still be limited [5].