宝城期货国债期货早报-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut, the rising risk appetite in the stock market, and the resulting inhibition of bond - buying demand [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, short - term (within a week): oscillation; medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillation; intraday: weakly oscillating; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy interest rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, and the central bank's loan discount policy for the consumption field makes the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut low. The rising risk appetite in the stock market leads to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying bonds [5].