宝城期货煤焦早报-20250818

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601 are mainly in the range of "oscillation", with intraday views being "oscillation on the stronger side" [1][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - For Jiao Coal, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the "anti - involution" campaign is set by the Central Financial and Economic Commission and is actively responded to by multiple industries. The oversupply situation in the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, and the price center has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] - For Coke, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply and demand of Coke are both increasing, and the fundamentals are stable. Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal. The market expectation has improved, and the futures price of Coke is more likely to rise than to fall [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The industry's supply - demand relationship is expected to gradually balance through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, but the risk lies in the insufficient implementation of policies [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The market expectation has improved due to supply - side news disturbances, and the futures price is easy to rise, with the main negative factor being the insufficient reduction in coking coal supply [6]