宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250818

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and inventory increase, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the significant increase in costs and the relatively small real - world contradictions under low inventory, the downside space is limited. The short - term trend will continue the weak oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term and intraday views are weak oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of a weakened supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and the transaction was average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly month - on - month, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened significantly, and downstream industries have not improved. The weak demand characteristics during the off - season remain. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken, but the increase in costs and low inventory limit the downside space, and the short - term trend is a weak oscillation [3].