Group 1: Report Core View - The soda ash futures have the potential to continue to be long due to supply reduction expectations, optimistic demand outlook, cost support, and policy speculation potential [3] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Analysis - Supply: The current weekly production of the soda ash industry is maintained at a high level of 730,000 tons, with an operating rate as high as 87.13%. However, the new environmental protection policy in Qinghai will lead to production reduction expectations as Qinghai's capacity accounts for about 14.9% of the national capacity [3] - Demand: Although the float glass capacity is limited by the weak real - estate completion and new construction data, and the photovoltaic glass is in a loss situation, with the economic recovery, there is an optimistic expectation for future demand. The export volume of soda ash in the first half of 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, providing support to the market [3] - Cost: The prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal have risen, and since fuel and raw materials account for a relatively high proportion in the cost of soda ash, it provides support to the soda ash futures price [3] Group 3: Other Futures Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The short - term market will enter a high - level shock stage [5] Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [8] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are strongly supported as the molten iron output remains at a high level due to the improvement in steel mill profitability. The black industry chain is in a relatively healthy state under the call for anti - involution. Technically, it has a small fluctuation today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range shock recently [11][12] Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [15][16] Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18]
金信期货日刊-20250818
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-18 01:05