宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250818

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue high - level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the iron ore 2601 variety, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and on the strong side. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being that the demand has some resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. Steel mill production is stabilizing, the terminal consumption of ore has increased, and demand remains at a relatively high level, providing support for the ore price. However, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking [2]. - Domestic port ore arrivals have declined again, and miner shipments have also slightly decreased. Short - term overseas ore supply is low, but its sustainability at high ore prices is questionable. Meanwhile, domestic ore supply has increased, and the overall ore supply is expected to rise [2]. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the valuation is high with weak upward driving force [2].