宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are mostly "oscillating strongly". The core logics involve factors such as raw material cost support, policy influence, and supply - demand relationships [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - Core Logic: Although the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, the pattern is hard to change before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. Due to the disturbance of Sino - US trade relations and the transfer of funds, the futures price of soybean meal has high - level fluctuations, with short - term oscillation and strong tendency and the repair of internal - external price difference [5]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - Core Logic: The July supply - demand data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is neutral to positive. Indonesia and Malaysia have raised export tariffs, supporting price resilience. The Indonesian biodiesel policy provides long - term support for prices. Domestic palm oil futures prices follow international trends and are prone to rise in the short term [7]. Soybean Oil (2601) - View: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - Core Logic: It is affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm (2601) - View: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - Core Logic: It is related to biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Meal (2601) - View: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - Core Logic: It is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6].