钢材：低库存下的钢材拉锯战

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The hot - rolled coil market is currently in a stage where macro - sentiment and real supply - demand are intertwined. The short - term fundamentals are weak, with sluggish demand improvement and high pig iron production. However, the low inventory and uncertainties in the raw material end provide conditions for the price to repeatedly rally. During the policy window period, prices are more driven by sentiment and expectations, with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in terminal demand and the impact of events such as production restrictions and safety production on supply. If there is resonance between the news and demand, there is room for the market to expand upwards; otherwise, the risk of high - level pressure cannot be ignored [1][14]. 3. Section Summaries Macro Aspects After multiple rounds of news - driven movements, the steel market has entered a relatively calm stage. The "anti - involution" policy has been partially reflected in the price, and some steel mills have received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions from August 16 to early September, as well as the regional production restriction expectations due to the September 3 parade, which have all affected the price. After the Politburo meeting, the policy is in a "window period", and the market has returned to focusing on fundamentals [3]. Fundamental Aspects - Static Fundamentals: The overall demand for finished products is weak. Downstream industries like automotive and home appliances have insufficient restocking before the peak season, and there is no significant change in the real - estate policy. With high pig iron production and good steel mill profits, the supply is still actively released, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. Some projects only provide phased and structural support without changing the long - term demand pattern. However, the demand in engineering machinery and shipbuilding has some resilience [4]. - Price Drivers: The resonance between the recent price fluctuations and the spot fundamentals is decreasing. Short - term price drivers come more from the game between macro - expectations and emotions rather than just supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is short - term bearish pressure from the fundamental side, such as weak terminal demand and high pig iron production, the impact of raw material factors cannot be ignored. Uncertainties in supply make the price more volatile [13]. - Market Outlook: In the short term, the hot - rolled coil market is in a pattern where fundamental pressure and emotional support coexist. The weak real supply - demand restricts price increases, while low inventory, good domestic economic performance, and overseas easing expectations provide support. If there are favorable policies, projects, or production restrictions, or if the overseas interest - rate environment becomes more relaxed with marginal demand improvement, the cost - effectiveness of long - positions will increase; otherwise, the price may fall under high - level pressure [14].