Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - Market Situation: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - Market Situation: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Data: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Situation: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price and Position Data: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - Market Situation: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Inventory Data: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - Market Situation: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].
黑色建材日报-20250818
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-18 01:35