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西部证券晨会纪要-20250818
Western Securities·2025-08-18 01:35

Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the computing power sector has entered a main rising market, fulfilling necessary conditions for a significant market uptrend similar to the mobile internet boom in 2013 [8][10] - Short-term opportunities are identified in packaging testing, storage, computing chips, algorithm technology, and software, which show favorable technical indicators [13] - Mid-term analysis suggests that the valuation gap between Chinese and US computing power sectors is expected to converge, with higher performance expectation adjustments in advanced packaging, storage, and power sectors in China [11][12] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Tianshan Co., as the largest cement producer in China, is expected to achieve revenues of 83.3 billion, 82.6 billion, and 82.1 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.72 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.70 billion CNY respectively [23][24] - The company is currently valued at a low PB of 0.5x, with a target price set at 8.22 CNY per share, reflecting a "buy" rating [23] - The report highlights that Tianshan Co. is well-positioned to benefit from regional infrastructure policies and has potential for cost reduction through enhanced management and resource utilization [24] Group 3: Economic and Industry Trends - The report notes a slowdown in industrial and service sector growth, with retail sales continuing to decline, indicating a weakening domestic demand [5][26] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in real estate development investment, which fell by 17% [27][28] - The cement demand is projected to decline by 5%-6% in 2025, but the report anticipates stabilization in the long term, particularly in regions like Xinjiang [24]