冠通期货资讯早间报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.04% at $3381.70 per ounce, down 3.14% for the week, and COMEX silver futures down 0.13% at $38.02 per ounce, down 1.35% for the week [2] - Oil prices were under pressure due to looser supply - demand and fading geopolitical premiums. The U.S. crude oil main contract fell 1.28% to $63.14 per barrel, down 1.16% for the week; Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.06% to $66.13 per barrel, down 0.69% for the week [2] - Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc down 1.83%, down 1.08% for the week; LME aluminum down 0.63%, down 0.23% for the week; LME lead down 0.43%, down 1.32% for the week; LME copper down 0.06%, down 0.02% for the week; LME tin up 0.44%, down 0.04% for the week; LME nickel up 1.09%, up 0.26% for the week [2] - As of the close at 23:00 on the 15th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Palm oil and coking coal rose more than 2%, and coke, glass, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose more than 1%. Methanol, soda ash, and ethylene glycol fell slightly [3] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - In July, consumer prices showed positive changes, with the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continuously expanding. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail sales growing year - on - year [5] - An analyst expects the central bank to continue injecting medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases in August and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates around the beginning of the fourth quarter [5] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level targets [5] - Trump will determine tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with potential rates of 200% or 300% [6] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [8][10] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association emphasized controlling production capacity and output and balancing domestic and international markets in the second half of the year [10] - In the 33rd week (August 9 - 15), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, 30,500 tons lower than expected [10] Metal Futures - The quotes of first - tier photovoltaic module enterprises reached $0.7 per watt, and there was a shortage of 710W large - format modules. The market price of polysilicon increased, and costs decreased [12] - Many photovoltaic enterprises were notified to participate in a symposium on August 19 [13] - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel inventories on the SHFE increased, while tin inventory decreased [14] - There were rumors about polysilicon production and sales restrictions, but a head of a silicon material enterprise did not confirm the information [15] - An analyst believes there will be reasons to cut interest rates several times this year due to a softening job market and still - high inflation [15] Black - Series Futures - Some steel enterprises in Tangshan will stop production from August 20 to September 6 due to environmental protection [17] - In July, China's steel output increased year - on - year, while crude steel output decreased. Real estate development investment and construction area declined [17] - Iron ore inventories at ports increased, and the number of ships in port decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while daily hot metal output increased [17][19] - A steel company in Liaoning will conduct a 20 - day maintenance on a blast furnace, affecting daily hot metal output by about 15,000 tons [20] - China sued Canada at the WTO for its import restrictions on steel products [20] - In late July, the output of key coal enterprises decreased. The total inventory of steel in cities increased this week [20][21] - The U.S. expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [22] Agricultural Product Futures - The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs decreased, while the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding increased [24] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [26] - The inventory of imported cotton at main ports decreased [27] - In the second half of July, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar output decreased year - on - year [27] 3. Financial Market Finance - As the market strengthened, the number of doubled stocks in A - shares increased. There were 310 stocks with a gain of over 100% this year, and the number of low - price stocks decreased [29] - CITIC Securities recommended focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and games, and corresponding ETFs [29] - Some funds established during the previous bull market have recovered, but there is a significant performance gap among them [29][31] - The performance of private stock funds has recovered, but some subjective private stock funds are facing redemptions [31] - The performance of public FOFs has improved, with most achieving positive returns this year [31] - Some well - known private fund managers have adjusted their positions. 22 out of 25 North Exchange listed companies achieved year - on - year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [32] - China Shenhua will resume trading on August 18 and plans a large - scale asset integration [32][34] Industry - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games ended successfully, and the World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation was established [35] - 8 out of 13 wealth management companies saw an increase in the scale of their wealth management products in the first half of 2025, with one having a 64.83% increase [35] - Chongqing added 300 million yuan for automobile replacement subsidies in the third quarter. Hainan released a three - year action plan for high - quality development of marine tourism [35][36] - Wuhan suspended its automobile replacement policy on August 19. A compressed air energy storage technology was successfully verified in Hunan [36][38] - A large - scale shale gas field in Chongqing was confirmed, and the express delivery industry in China has developed rapidly this year [38][39] Overseas - The U.S. and Russia's leaders' meeting made progress, and Trump shifted his stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [40] - The U.S. trade negotiation representative canceled a trip to India, and the EU plans to mobilize citizens' bank deposits for investment [41] International Stock Market - Citi recommended an overweight position in stocks (especially U.S. and to some extent European stocks), an underweight position in UK stocks, a neutral position in government bonds, an overweight position in emerging - market bonds, an underweight position in Japanese government bonds, an underweight position in European and U.S. investment - grade credit, a neutral position in commodities, shorting the U.S. dollar, and going long on the euro and some emerging - market currencies [42] Commodity - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and aims to become an international gold trading center [43] Bond - The first four company bonds were re - issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and more companies are preparing for bond re - issuance [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Upcoming economic data include the UK's August Rightmove average house asking price index, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index, Switzerland's second - quarter industrial output, etc. [47] Events - The People's Bank of China has 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 2025 Global Smart Education Conference will be held from August 18 - 20. The expanded U.S. tariff list on steel and aluminum imports takes effect on August 18. Earnings reports of some companies will be released [49]