工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices may maintain high-level consolidation due to factors such as the resumption of production in some silicon plants in Xinjiang, the entry of the southwest production area into the wet season, the stable increase in supply, and the complex demand situation [1] - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain at a high level with large fluctuations in the market, and cautious operation is required, considering the supply adjustment and the weak demand in the photovoltaic market [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.50% to 8,805 yuan/ton. The price of most industrial silicon products remained stable, while the prices in some regions decreased slightly [1] - Polysilicon: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon remained flat, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.58% to 52,740 yuan/ton [1] Power Generation Information - In July, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.4 percentage points compared to June. From January to July, the cumulative power generation increased by 1.3% year-on-year. Different power generation varieties showed different trends, with the growth rates of thermal power, wind power, and solar power accelerating, the decline of hydropower expanding, and the growth rate of nuclear power slowing down [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut-down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and enterprises in the southwest production area have steadily increased their production due to lower power costs. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of the organic silicon industry is tightened due to an accident, but the supply pressure has recently increased. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some new production capacities may be put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the output in July approaching 110,000 tons and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials increasing. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak, and the component prices have adjusted [1]