五矿期货早报有色金属-20250818

1. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the non - ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with macro - factors and industry fundamentals jointly influencing metal prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. - Copper prices may consolidate and await further macro - driven factors. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. Lead prices are expected to be weak. Zinc prices have a large downward risk. Tin prices are expected to oscillate. Nickel prices have callback pressure. Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. Stainless steel prices will continue to consolidate in the short term. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Performance: Last week, LME copper slightly declined by 0.08% to $9760/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79080 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory Changes: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 0.4 to 8.6 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.3 to 24.2 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.5 tons [1]. - Market Outlook: Copper prices may consolidate and wait for further macro - driven factors. This week, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 77800 - 80200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price Performance: SHFE aluminum's main contract rose 0.41% last week, while LME aluminum fell 0.46% to $2603/ton [3]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.4 tons to 58.8 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 0.7 to 10.5 tons, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.4 to 13.9 tons. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1.0 to 48.0 tons [3]. - Market Outlook: Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. This week, the reference range for the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2520 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated upward, with the AD2511 contract rising 0.27% to 20165 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.1 to 4.9 tons, and the total of social and factory inventory slightly increased [5]. - Market Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, despite strong cost support [5]. Lead - Price Performance: SHFE lead index rose 0.43% to 16849 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose $4 to $1987.5/ton [7]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons, SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6.18 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.17 tons [7]. - Market Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry [7]. Zinc - Price Performance: SHFE zinc index rose 0.15% to 22521 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $18.5 to $2835.5/ton [8]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons, SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 2 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 7.75 tons [9]. - Market Outlook: Zinc prices have a large downward risk due to the continued over - supply situation in the medium - term industry [9]. Tin - Price Performance: On August 15, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266820 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [10]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 4 tons to 7426 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 175 tons to 1655 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10392 tons, an increase of 114 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - Market Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - Price Performance: On Friday, SHFE nickel's main contract closed at 120600 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [11]. - Market Outlook: Nickel prices have callback pressure. The reference range for SHFE nickel's main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Performance: On August 15, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 82832 yuan, up 18.62% for the week. The LC2511 contract closed at 86900 yuan, up 1.88% from the previous day and 12.92% for the week [14]. - Market Outlook: Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. The reference range for the main contract on the GZEE is 84300 - 90000 yuan/ton [14]. Alumina - Price Performance: On August 15, the alumina index fell 0.84% to 3195 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory Changes: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 1.41 tons to 6.58 tons [16]. - Market Outlook: Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - Price Performance: Stainless steel futures prices faced resistance in rising, and some product prices slightly declined [18]. - Inventory Changes: Social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous period, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.99% to 64.45 tons [18]. - Market Outlook: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [18].