国新国证期货早报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On August 15, 2025, A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.60%, and ChiNext Index up 2.61%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, reaching 22446 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index trended stronger on August 15, closing at 4202.35, up 29.04 [2]. - The coke weighted index had a narrow - range fluctuation on August 15, closing at 1717.8, up 8.8, and the coking coal weighted index oscillated and closed at 1214.9 yuan, up 5.9 [3][4]. - The palm oil market was strong on the night of August 15, with the new main contract P2601 increasing positions and reaching new highs for the year. However, due to policy uncertainties, a phased adjustment may occur, and the market should be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [6]. - For soybeans, US soybean export sales had a net increase of 75.54 million tons as of August 7, but a large number of old - crop contracts were cancelled. Brazilian new - season soybean planting area is expected to increase. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract of soybean meal decreased by 0.63% on August 15. Although the cost of imported soybeans provides support, the high inventory limits the price increase [7][8][9]. - The live hog futures price oscillated on August 15. Currently, it is in the off - season of pork consumption, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the second half of the year, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [9]. - The copper price is expected to gradually move up due to positive factors such as good progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, expected US interest rate cuts in September, and domestic growth - stabilizing policies. The copper market is in a tight - balance supply situation, and new - energy vehicle sales will drive copper demand [10]. - The iron ore 2601 main contract declined by 1.08% on August 15. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price is in an oscillating trend [10]. - The asphalt 2510 main contract fell by 0.49% on August 15. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. - The alumina price may continue to decline slightly in the short term due to increasing supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support [13]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has a small increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. However, the low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to improve as September approaches [13]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 0.83%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67, up 1.60%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2534.22, up 2.61%. The trading volume of the two markets was 22446 billion yuan, slightly down 346 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4202.35 on August 15, up 29.04 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 15, the coke weighted index closed at 1717.8, up 8.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1214.9 yuan, up 5.9 [3][4]. - The exchange strengthened position limits on coking coal. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% year - on - year, and the export of coke decreased by 28% year - on - year [5]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. The port coke spot price is stable, and some steel mills have a good demand for coke, but some traders are waiting and watching. The price of coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the Mongolian coal market was strong with limited trading volume [6]. Palm Oil - On the night of August 15, the palm oil market was strong, with the new main contract P2601 increasing positions by 44000 lots, reaching a new high for the year. Considering policy uncertainties, a phased adjustment may occur, and the market should be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [6]. Soybean Meal - As of August 7, US soybean export sales had a net increase of 75.54 million tons, but a large number of old - crop contracts were cancelled. Brazilian new - season soybean planting area is expected to increase. On August 15, the M2601 main contract of soybean meal decreased by 0.63%. Although the cost of imported soybeans provides support, the high inventory limits the price increase [7][8][9]. Live Hogs - On August 15, the live hog futures price oscillated. It is currently in the off - season of pork consumption, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the second half of the year, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [9]. Copper - Positive factors such as good progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, expected US interest rate cuts in September, and domestic growth - stabilizing policies will push up the copper price. The copper market is in a tight - balance supply situation, and new - energy vehicle sales will drive copper demand. The copper price will oscillate upwards after short - term stabilization [10]. Iron Ore - On August 15, the iron ore 2601 main contract declined by 1.08%, closing at 776 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price is in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On August 15, the asphalt 2510 main contract fell by 0.49%, closing at 3461 yuan. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. Alumina - The alumina price may continue to decline slightly in the short term due to increasing supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support [13]. Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has a small increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. However, the low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to improve as September approaches [13].