螺纹钢周报:供需边际转弱,关注限产落地情况-20250818
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:01
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of the China-US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment. The steel mills maintain high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term despite the frequent news of production restrictions. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and contradictions are starting to accumulate. The futures price fluctuates with raw materials and faces upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7][72][73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data shows that in July, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and from January to July, it increased by 3.8% year - on - year. From January to July, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. National fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year from January to July, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Policy information indicates that the US extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which alleviated trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment [7] 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Currency Price - No specific content provided 3.2.2 Price Ratio - Domestic and Overseas - No specific content provided 3.2.3 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of various steel - related products have different trends. For example, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.19%, a monthly change of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 6.07% [22] 3.2.4 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar fluctuates. For example, on August 14, 2025, the futures main contract was 3189 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable was 3300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 111 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (for Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On August 15, 2025, the output of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and medium - thick plate) was 785.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.125530207 and a month - on - month increase of 0.002911282 [46] 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On August 15, 2025, the weekly rebar output was 220.45 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.003300479 and a year - on - year increase of 0.325058604 [50] 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - On August 15, 2025, the steel mill inventory of steel products was 503.88 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.08458688 and a month - on - month increase of 0.022151899 [53] 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No specific content provided 3.3.11 Social Inventory of Rebar - No specific content provided 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The extension of the China - US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions. In terms of fundamentals, steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term. This week, the supply of five major steel products increased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the rebar output decreasing by 0.3% week - on - week. In terms of demand, the consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% this week, with the building materials consumption decreasing by 7.6% week - on - week and the plate consumption increasing by 5.6% week - on - week. The social inventory of steel products increased week - on - week, mainly due to rebar. The supply of raw materials is still subject to disturbances, and the price fluctuations are increasing. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [72][73]