南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250817）：旺季预期初见端倪，关注订单启动情况-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol has been mainly fluctuating within a range. The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). Overall, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is basically balanced, lacking obvious drivers, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. - The prices of PX - PTA have been maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee has been at a historical low. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of PX - PTA is not significant, mainly following the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, the structural contradiction between PX and PTA needs to be alleviated through additional PTA maintenance. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee on dips [5][6]. Summary by Directory MEG - Inventory: The inventory at East China ports has reached 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 3 tons [1][2]. - Device: Sheng Hong's 1.9 million - ton device restarted after a short - term shutdown; Zhe Petrochemical's Phase II Line 1 with a capacity of 800,000 tons restarted and produced; Shenhua Yulin's 400,000 - ton device reduced its load for maintenance. Overseas, Saudi Sharq3's 550,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). The terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [2]. PX - TA - PX: Some PX devices have increased their loads, with the load rising to 84.3% (+2.3%). The subsequent supply is expected to increase, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. The PXN has shrunk to 253 (-8), and the PX - MX has recovered to 119.5 (+3) [5]. - PTA: The supply and demand of PTA lack obvious drivers, and the price has been fluctuating within a range. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has been at a low level, and there is a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in August. The demand side has seen an increase in the polyester load, and the terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [5][6]. Polyester - Price and Profit: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY have increased, while the prices of staple fibers, chips, and bottle chips have decreased slightly. The processing fees of filaments and bottle chips have been repaired [10]. - Load: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%), and the loads of filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips have also increased to varying degrees [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of filaments has decreased, while the inventory of staple fibers has increased slightly. The inventory of bottle chips has remained stable [10]. Device Operation - MEG Device: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load - adjustments. Overseas, many MEG devices have also been shut down or are under maintenance [16]. - PX Device: Some PX devices in the Chinese mainland and overseas have been shut down for maintenance, and some have restarted [17]. - PTA Device: Some PTA devices in the Chinese mainland have been shut down, reduced their loads, or restarted [18]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the production, import, export, supply, demand, and inventory data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - PX - TA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the production, import, supply, consumption, and inventory data of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025 [14].