Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250818
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:01