铜周报：回归基本面定价，铜价维稳运行-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US employment data is weak and the CPI reflects moderate inflation, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The domestic central bank's monetary policy aims to keep prices at a reasonable level, with positive macro - impacts both at home and abroad. - Fundamentally, spot inventory remains low, and premiums are firm. There are concerns about supply reduction during the September - October maintenance peak. However, with the repair of overseas premiums, some overseas copper is flowing into China and other Asian markets, and recent imports have increased. - Domestic supply output remains high, and downstream consumption in the off - season shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. But consumption has resilience, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season may boost copper prices. - Low inventory supports copper prices at a high level. With favorable domestic policies and the Fed rate - cut expectation, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply Side: The contradiction between mining and smelting persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, still at a low level. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month, showing a stable low - level trend. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate [6]. - Demand Side: In the off - season, downstream consumption shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong demand in the lithium - battery copper foil market, while the copper tube operating rate declined as expected, and the copper strip operating rate continued to fall due to the off - season [6]. - Inventory: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: With positive macro - impacts, high domestic supply, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro Data: The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. China's July retail sales growth slowed to 3.7%, and the auto retail sales declined year - on - year. China's real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI reached a new high since February. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high [15]. - Industry News: Chile's July copper exports decreased by 0.4% year - on - year to 3.99 billion dollars. Codelco resumed partial operations at El Teniente copper mine. In June, Codelco's copper production increased year - on - year, while Escondida's production decreased significantly. In July, the proportion of Russian - origin copper in LME warehouses decreased due to the large - scale inflow of Chinese - origin copper. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter eased the tight copper concentrate supply. Cochilco maintained its copper price forecast at 4.30 dollars/pound for this year and next [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - Premiums and Discounts: Last week, due to the change in the monthly spread structure to Contango, most holders were reluctant to sell, and the domestic spot supply was still tight. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, but declined at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium continued to fall, and the New York - London copper spread remained low after a significant decline [25]. - Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad: As of August 15, the SHFE copper futures position was 152,557 lots, down 2.76% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume was 54,485 lots, up 10.21% week - on - week. As of August 8, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 21,281.52 lots, down 2.89% week - on - week. As of August 12, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 25,168 lots, up 37.91% week - on - week [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply Side: The mining - smelting contradiction persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter slightly eased the copper concentrate supply. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year [34]. - Downstream Operating Rates: As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively [36]. - Imports and Exports: As of August 15, the SHFE - LME copper ratio was 8.10, and the copper spot import profit and loss remained negative but the negative value narrowed. In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, up 5.11% year - on - year; unforged copper and copper products imports were 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year [39]. - Inventory: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [48].