信用策略周报20250817：3年二永，跌出来的机会？-20250818

Group 1 - The overall credit bond yields have followed the adjustment of interest rate bonds, with credit spreads showing mixed changes. Specifically, the decline in the 3-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds was the most significant, reaching 6-11 basis points, while the longer-term bonds also experienced notable declines [1][11] - City investment bonds saw a greater decline compared to medium-short bonds, with the 7-year ultra-long city investment bonds experiencing the largest drop of around 8 basis points [1][11] - The credit spread for medium-short bonds, especially those with maturities of 4 years and above, was generally weaker than that of the same maturity national development bonds, leading to a passive narrowing of credit spreads during the week [1][11] Group 2 - Since July, the trading volume of public credit bonds has been continuously shrinking, and the duration has also decreased from its high levels. The long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) have shown relative resilience due to buying from insurance and wealth management products, while the buying power from funds has decreased significantly [2][16] - The valuation of ETF constituent bonds has generally followed the market adjustment, but the decline in valuation for constituent bonds was structurally lower than that of non-constituent bonds of similar maturity [3][24] - The long-end constituent bonds, especially ultra-long bonds, were more resilient during the week, with most individual bonds experiencing smaller valuation declines compared to non-constituent bonds [3][44] Group 3 - Since May, the trading duration of perpetual bonds has been continuously extended, with both the trading volume and proportion of bonds with maturities over 5 years reaching year-to-date highs. This indicates a shift from trading to allocation among major participating institutions [4][46] - The supply of perpetual bonds, including TLAC bonds, has significantly increased during this period, and the buying power from public funds has been higher than selling power, particularly for long-end perpetual bonds [4][47] Group 4 - As of August 15, 2025, some AA and AA(2) credit bonds with maturities within 2 years have seen yields drop to over 1.9%, indicating the value of short-term bonds. These bonds also possess defensive attributes amid market volatility, as the bond market will continue to be influenced by equity market fluctuations [5][60] - The 3-4 year perpetual bonds have emerged as a cost-effective option, with their yield curve steepening and current valuations being higher than those of similarly rated medium-short bonds and city investment bonds, offering better trading value and liquidity [5][60]