LPG：短期估值合理，震荡运行，丙烯：供需收紧，价格存一定支撑

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a reasonable short - term valuation and will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The supply - demand of propylene is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - LPG Futures Prices: PG2509 closed at 3,861 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.08%, and 3,872 in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.28%. PG2510 closed at 4,332 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56%, and 4,331 in the night session with a night - session decrease of 0.02%. PL2601 closed at 6,492 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.06%, and 6,475 in the night session with a night - session decrease of 0.26%. PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and remained at 6,525 in the night session [1]. - LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest: For PG2509, the trading volume yesterday was 75,971, an increase of 10,341 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 73,799, a decrease of 7,159. For PG2510, the trading volume was 47,247, an increase of 7,426, and the open interest was 97,481, a decrease of 213. For PL2601, the trading volume was 789, a decrease of 128, and the open interest was 4,132, a decrease of 79. For PL2602, the trading volume was 7, a decrease of 30, and the open interest was 859, a decrease of 1 [1]. - LPG Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 519 yesterday, compared to 522 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 609 yesterday, compared to 602 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 67, - 67, and - 117 respectively yesterday, compared to - 13, - 63, and - 113 the previous day [1]. - LPG Industry Chain Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 76.3%, up from 73.8% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 63.4%, down from 66.6%. The alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, down from 50.0% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On August 14, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 521 US dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 491 US dollars/ton, also a 2 - dollar/ton increase. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 504 US dollars/ton, also unchanged [6]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times determined and some to be determined [7]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many domestic LPG factories in Shandong, Northeast, North China, East China, South China, and other regions have maintenance plans, including full - plant maintenance, alkylation unit maintenance, and catalytic device maintenance, with different start and end times and durations [7].