烧碱：偏多对待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoint - The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and stocking demand for alumina, especially the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The subsequent alumina stocking will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the stocking rhythm will affect domestic prices. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries such as PVC restricts profit expansion, and there may be passive production cuts of caustic soda in the future. Overall, the replenishment during the peak season of caustic soda downstream is likely to drive the spot price up, so a bullish view is maintained [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the futures price of the 11th contract was 2,674. The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2,656, and the basis was -18 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 18, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased the purchase price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 30 yuan/ton, with an ex-factory price of 800 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The demand side is the core driver, with alumina demand rising. There is an expected 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight supply in the region. The high price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda will drive the circulation of 50% caustic soda. The 93rd parade affects transportation, and the purchase price of a Shandong alumina plant may be raised. Export support is strong, but stocking affects domestic prices. The weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries restricts profit expansion and may lead to passive production cuts. Downstream peak-season replenishment is likely to drive the spot price up [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively bullish view within the [-2, 2] range [4]