沥青：出货未见好，原油难偏多

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The title of the report indicates that the asphalt shipment is not improving, and the outlook for crude oil is not optimistic. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 0, suggesting a neutral stance [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,497 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 3,516 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.54%. The trading volume was 15,753 lots, an increase of 2,614 lots, and the open interest was 32,928 lots, a decrease of 4,616 lots. - For BU2510, the yesterday's closing price was 3,461 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 3,488 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.78%. The trading volume was 146,232 lots, a decrease of 7,587 lots, and the open interest was 226,829 lots, an increase of 2,006 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total asphalt market warehouse receipts were 73,350 lots, with no change [1]. - Spreads: - The basis (Shandong - 09) was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan from the previous day. - The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. - The Shandong - South China spread was 100, a decrease of 10. - The East China - South China spread was 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price at 3,720 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price at 3,859 yuan/ton. - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,730 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,749 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,807 yuan/ton [1]. - Operating and Inventory Rates: As of August 14, the refinery operating rate was 35.61%, a decrease of 2.86% from August 11, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.79%, with no change [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Production: From August 8 - 14, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 58.7 tons, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week but a 31.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to August was 1,848.9 tons, a 9.2% increase year - on - year [12]. - Factory Warehouse Inventory: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 74.6 tons, a 0.9% decrease from August 11. The East China region had the most significant inventory reduction due to intermittent production cuts at major refineries and increased shipping [12]. - Social Warehouse Inventory: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 183.4 tons, a 1.0% decrease from August 11. The East China region had obvious inventory reduction, mainly driven by low - price resources, short - term rigid demand, and reduced ship - cargo warehousing [12].