中原期货晨会纪要-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, but may experience increased volatility and consolidation when the index is at a high level and trying to break through previous highs. It is recommended to focus on sectors such as AI, innovative drugs, non - ferrous metals, military industry, and large - scale finance. During the peak period of interim report disclosure, allocation opportunities in industries like machinery, power equipment, non - bank finance, and electronics are also worthy of attention [9]. - For Hong Kong, if it can transform the tension between traditional and emerging economic models into a driving force for economic upgrading and transformation, it can create new growth points. The integration of the supply chain and the reshaping of trade forms will bring new development opportunities to Hong Kong's trade, shipping, finance, and professional services [10]. - The central government's fiscal policy still has significant room for improvement, and in the fourth quarter, there may be a new round of policy layout. Further measures to improve residents' social security are expected [10]. - The EU's "Savings and Investment Alliance" plan may encourage more countries to adopt the Swedish - style bank account model, promoting more people to invest their savings in stocks [11]. - It is recommended to maintain the view of a slow - bull market in the A - share market. For investors, it is important to grasp the rotation rhythm of sectors. For less - experienced investors, it is advisable to reduce trading frequency. Opportunities for low - buying in IF, IM, and IC are still worthy of attention [24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - Price Changes: On August 18, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a 3.290% rise, while 20 - day rubber had the largest decline with a 0.551% drop [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - Price Changes: On August 18, 2025, among agricultural products, palm oil had the largest increase with a 2.093% rise, while cotton had a 0.106% decline [6]. - Market Analysis: - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range shock. In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong - shock trend but will not change the downward trend [13]. - Sugar: The sugar market has a mixed fundamental situation. It is recommended to operate with a shock mindset in the 5600 - 5700 yuan range, and focus on Brazil's production progress and domestic import data [13]. - Corn: The corn market is also in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to sell short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to the start time of policy - based purchases and the rhythm of new grain listings [13]. - Pigs: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to remain range - bound [13]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price is stable, and the spot price is expected to rise steadily. It is recommended to avoid going long on the futures market [14]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has good export and shipment performance, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The domestic cotton market is expected to be in a slightly strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Industry - Urea: The domestic urea market price is weakly stable. Although it is facing weak supply - demand pressure, the release of news such as the Indian tender may boost market sentiment. The disk should focus on the 1680 - 1800 yuan/ton range [14]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong may rise steadily in the short term, and the price in the East China region is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [14]. - Coking Coal: The overall supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and downstream demand is weak. However, the six - round price increase of coke has been implemented, which provides some support. It is expected that the price of coking coal will remain firm in the short term and show a high - level shock [14][16]. 3.4 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continues to oscillate and consolidate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue high - level adjustment [18]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increases, and the demand is relatively stable. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and it is expected to continue range - bound consolidation [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price is facing adjustment pressure, but the overall decline space is limited, and there is still upward driving force. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying in the medium term [19]. - Ferroalloys: The output of ferroalloys increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be in an interval shock with a rising center of gravity [19][20]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is a short - term supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the new support level of 85,000 yuan, but be vigilant against technical corrections [20]. 3.5 Option Finance - Options: On August 15, the A - share market was strong. The trading volume of stock index options increased, and the implied volatility rose. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [22]. - Stock Index: The A - share market maintains a slow - bull trend. The trading volume has increased significantly, and high - net - worth investors are accelerating their entry into the market. It is recommended to invest in broad - based ETFs for ordinary investors, and focus on the financial sector represented by securities in September [23][24][25].