棉花:继续上涨需要新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:08
- Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton needs new drivers to continue rising [1] - Concerns about demand remain the main factor limiting the rise of ICE cotton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 14,120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25%, and 14,105 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.11%. CY2511 closed at 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.35%, and 20,145 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.20%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 67.48 cents/pound with a decline of 0.16% [1] - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of CF2601 was 261,447 lots, a decrease of 93,841 lots from the previous day, and the position was 768,486 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 7,393 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,336 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,829, a decrease of 93, and the effective forecast was 249, a decrease of 24. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1] - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,192 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price in Shandong was 15,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Hebei was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or - 0.18%. The 3128B index was 15,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 75.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.12%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.10%, and the arrival price was 22,131 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan or 0.12% [1] - Spreads: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with spinning mills making mainly rigid - demand purchases. The road freight for cotton out of Xinjiang increased slightly in some areas. The spot basis was stable. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1600 for inland self - pick - up [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, with increased transactions and downstream replenishment purchases. Yarn prices rose slightly, and spinning mills' operating rates changed little and remained under production restrictions. The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market was average, with insufficient downstream orders. Most fabric mills were pessimistic about purchasing. The operating rates of fabric mills in Guangdong were stable, and those in the north recovered slightly, but the overall operating rate was low. Grey fabric quotes were raised, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures declined slightly last Friday. Concerns about demand remained the main factor limiting its rise [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of integers in the [- 2, 2] interval. [- 2] represents the most bearish view, and [2] represents the most bullish view [6]