尿素周报：现货接近前低，关注出口预期-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Price: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - Base Difference: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - Supply: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - Cost: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - Demand: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].