Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend. Recently, aluminum price fluctuations have been small, the basis has changed little, and there are limited arbitrage opportunities. It is advisable to wait and see for option contracts for the time being [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 20,585 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated, with the contract price ranging from 2,581 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to July, China's macro - data weakened. The national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The US Treasury Secretary called on the Federal Reserve to start a rate - cut cycle, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 basis points from the current level and a 50 - basis - point cut in September [5][14][40]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic aluminum premium or discount was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The monthly electrolytic aluminum output in July was 3.78 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,653 tons, an increase of 7,039 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.94%. As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 526,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous day [32].
铝周报：沪铝或延续震荡运行-20250818
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:23