Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The corn futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The main contract has switched to 2511, with the price breaking down. As spring corn is gradually coming onto the market, the supply will be further supplemented. Meanwhile, the开机 rate of downstream deep - processing enterprises remains low, and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid demand, showing low purchasing enthusiasm [9][61]. - The recommended trading strategies are to take a bearish approach on rallies for single - side trading, adopt a reverse spread strategy between near and far - term contracts for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options trading [9][62]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (1) Futures Price - Last Friday, the main corn futures contract switched to 2511. The market showed a weak and volatile trend last week. As of last Friday's close, the main c2511 contract was reported at 2,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, with a trading volume of 484,753 lots and an open interest of 828,457 lots [6][13]. - Last Friday, the CBOT December new - crop corn contract closed at 405.75 cents per bushel, a gain of 2.14% [6][16]. (2) Spot Price - In the Northeast, corn prices were under pressure and showed a weak trend last week. Traders' inventories were limited, terminal demand was weak, deep - processing enterprises had sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises also had relatively ample stocks with low purchasing willingness. As of last Friday, the reference price of second - grade corn in Harbin was 2,195 yuan/ton, and in Changchun was 2,250 yuan/ton, both down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][22]. - In North China, corn prices were slightly weaker. The market's bullish expectation cooled, and traders actively sold their stocks. Although the overall grain supply was tight, enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace, leading to a continuous decline in inventories. As of last Friday, the reference price of deep - processing corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - In the sales areas, corn prices were generally stable with partial slight declines. With the upcoming new - crop corn harvest, the price of old - crop corn dropped significantly. Downstream feed enterprises mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and consumed their previous inventories. As of last Friday, the mainstream price of second - grade Northeast corn in Chengdu was 2,490 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 2,580 yuan/ton, both down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][23]. - The corn markets at the north and south ports showed a differentiated trend. The price at Beigang was basically stable, with most port traders out of business, and inventory and shipments gradually declining. The price at Nangang rose slightly, driven by the slight increase in the futures market. Currently, the inventory at southern ports has slightly decreased, and actual trading by traders was dull. As of last Friday, the quoted price of second - grade corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,300 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port was 2,430 yuan/ton [8][23]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - France's Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2025 corn production forecast and raised its wheat production forecast, which may affect the corn supply - demand pattern and international trade flow in Europe [24]. - The State Council Executive Meeting passed the draft of the Law on Farmland Protection and Quality Improvement, emphasizing farmland protection and improvement, which will have a long - term impact on China's agricultural production and grain supply and may change the future planting structure and yield of crops such as corn [24]. - Two departments issued an announcement on the re - allocation of 2025 agricultural product import tariff quotas, which may affect the corn import rhythm and market supply expectations [24]. - Russia's Ministry of Agriculture reduced the export tariffs on wheat and corn to zero, which may increase the competitiveness of Russian corn in the international market and affect the global corn trade pattern [24]. - The policy of subsidies for corn and soybean producers in Liaoning Province in 2025 helps to stabilize corn production and ensure domestic supply [24]. - India's increased ethanol production has led farmers to switch from oilseed to corn cultivation, which may increase India's domestic corn supply and reduce oilseed production, affecting the global corn market supply - demand pattern [25]. - Ukrainian corn for October shipment has a premium over the forward price due to delayed harvest and optimistic production prospects, reflecting the market's expectation of short - term supply tightness [25]. - As of August 7, the average price of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in 34 regions of the United States was 143 US dollars per ton, unchanged from a week ago. The US corn spot price continued to decline, while the soybean meal price remained stable [25]. - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced that the China - US tariffs will remain at the current level for the next 90 days, but the import of some agricultural products may resume [25]. - The US CPI data for July showed a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%, in line with expectations, which strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and may affect the global agricultural product market capital flow [25]. - Ukraine's Ministry of Economy raised its 2025 grain production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons, mainly due to higher - than - expected corn production, which may affect the global corn supply pattern [26]. - India's policy of promoting the use of corn and rice to replace sugarcane for ethanol production has led to a decrease in oilseed planting area and an increase in corn planting area, which may affect the global corn supply - demand balance in the long term [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report showed that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 16.7 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the planting area has been increased by 2.1 million acres to 97.3 million acres, causing the CBOT corn futures to plunge by more than 3% [26]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn reached 83.7%, and the first - season corn harvest was completed at 99.9%, increasing the South American supply and putting pressure on the global corn market [26]. - A US private exporter reported a sale of 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico, with 294,658 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season, indicating that international demand still exists [26]. - Zambia's cabinet approved the export of 500,000 tons of surplus corn to southern Africa, which may increase regional corn supply and affect the international corn trade pattern [26]. - The US Department of Agriculture's August sowing area report showed that the US corn sowing area increased significantly in 2025, while the sowing areas of soybeans and wheat decreased, which may affect future corn supply [27]. - South Korea's FLC purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn at a CNF price of 226.05 US dollars per ton, expected to arrive in South Korea around December 20, indicating that international corn trade activities are still ongoing, but demand has not increased significantly [28]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 (1) Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of August 14, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07%. The corn inventory of national feed enterprises continued to decline last week. Although new - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market in some areas, downstream feed enterprises mainly met their rigid demand. Due to the cancellation of railway freight preferential policies in some northwestern provinces, transportation costs increased, and the corn supply in the sales areas mainly came from the Northeast, western Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi [32]. (2) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - According to a survey, the total corn inventory of 96 national corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.10%. The corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast mainly replenished their stocks through contracted grain arrivals, while those in North China mainly sourced from local and Northeast grain. Enterprises slowed down their purchasing pace and mostly pressured prices when purchasing [38]. (3) Deep - processing Enterprises'开机情况 - Last week, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons; the weekly national corn starch output was 289,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons; the weekly开机率 was 55.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The开机率 of the corn starch industry rebounded slightly last week, with enterprises both increasing production and undergoing maintenance. The开机率 may decline this week [42]. (4) Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit - Last week, the hedged by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 94 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was - 146 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton; in Heilongjiang, it was - 139 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. Due to the weak adjustment of corn prices and the rise in by - product prices, although the corn starch price declined, the enterprise production profit rebounded [47]. (5) Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - As of August 14, 149 major national corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.1406 million tons of corn last week, a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons. Among them, corn starch processing enterprises consumed 413,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons; amino acid enterprises consumed 175,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons; citric acid enterprises consumed 53,900 tons, unchanged from the previous month; alcohol enterprises consumed 268,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,600 tons [51]. 4.关联品情况分析 (1) Corn Starch - As of August 14, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong was 2,830 - 2,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it was 2,870 - 3,020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it was 2,720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; in Heilongjiang, it was 2,620 - 2,640 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn starch market price continued to be weak last week. On one hand, the raw material cost slightly decreased, and new order volumes were not ideal, so enterprises lowered prices to gain more orders. On the other hand, the开机率 of corn starch production rebounded, resulting in abundant market supply. With the approaching back - to - school season and the double - festival stocking period, downstream market inquiry activities increased, and the demand in the civilian field showed signs of recovery. The demand for syrup was strong in the peak season, and the overall demand side has positive expectations. However, due to the approaching new - corn harvest, downstream enterprises and traders are more cautious, and their purchases are mainly to meet rigid - demand inventory replenishment [55]. (2)生猪 - Last week, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decline of 1.94% and a year - on - year decline of 34.84%. The hog price continued to decline last week. The current oversupply situation in the breeding sector has further intensified. After the hog price reached a阶段性 low, the downward momentum has weakened, while the demand side still lacks obvious positive factors [60].
新粮上市临近，玉米弱势难改
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:23