消息刺激，油脂冲高震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of edible oils fluctuated after a sharp rise, driven by positive news. The domestic vegetable oil market has been rising alternately due to multiple factors such as raw material costs, biodiesel policies, and trade relations. The positive impact of raw material costs on edible oils is expected to continue, and the domestic edible oil market is expected to remain strong. However, after continuous price increases, there is significant upward pressure, and short - term sharp fluctuations are possible [8][31][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review and Important Information - Futures Prices: This week, the Y2601 soybean oil futures contract rose 1.74% to close at 8,534 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil futures contract rose 5.11% to close at 9,460 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil futures contract rose 2.05% to close at 9,757 yuan/ton [5][29]. - Palm Oil: According to the August Malaysian Palm Oil MPOB report, in July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The production and inventory data were lower than expected, and the report was positive, driving the Malaysian palm oil futures price up 5.27%. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026 [6][29]. - Soybean Oil: On August 12, after the market closed, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed in the form of a deposit. Starting from August 14, 2025, importers purchasing Canadian rapeseed through Canadian companies need to provide a deposit ratio of up to 75.8% to Chinese customs. The US soybean price rose 5.70% this week [7][30]. b. Spot Analysis - Soybean Oil: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [9]. - Palm Oil: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 1.308 million tons. On August 13, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 565,000 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,735,500 tons [16][20]. - Basis: As of August 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years. The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21][24].