申银万国期货首席点评：美俄会晤结束，国内商品聚焦反内卷预期兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as international political events, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4]. - For financial products, the stock index may continue to rise in the short - term, but the policy support effect may weaken later. The bond market may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and international policies [14][15][16]. - In the metal market, precious metals may fluctuate due to inflation data and interest - rate expectations, while base metals are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural product market, different products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and international trade policies [28][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - Crude Oil: SC night - trading declined slightly. The US unemployment rate may rise in August, inflation has intensified, and the possibility of the Fed's September interest - rate cut has decreased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [2][14]. - Precious Metals: Inflation data has put pressure on gold and silver. However, the weakening employment market and long - term driving factors support the prices. They may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts [3][20]. - Steel: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [4][25]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - International News: The US - Russia leaders' meeting made progress, and the US may promote a broader peace agreement. The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1][5]. - Domestic News: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and plans to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading center [7]. - Industry News: Thirteen wealth - management companies have disclosed their semi - annual reports. Most of them are concentrating on public - offering and fixed - income products [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - Different overseas market indices and commodities have different price changes, including increases and decreases in stock indices, commodities, and currencies [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - Stock Index: The stock index has risen, but the policy support may weaken later. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [11][12]. - Treasury Bond: The long - end bond price has fallen. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has decreased, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Similar to the key variety analysis, pay attention to OPEC's production increase [14]. - Methanol: The short - term trend is mainly bullish, with inventory accumulation and a relatively high operating rate [15]. - Rubber: The price is mainly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is weak. It may fluctuate and decline [16][17]. - Polyolefin: The market is in a stable stage after a rebound, and the terminal demand may pick up in the second half of August [18]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the price decline has stopped. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [19]. 3.4.3 Metal - Precious Metals: Similar to the key variety analysis, they may show a volatile trend [20]. - Copper: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [21]. - Zinc: The zinc price may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The price may have a callback risk and then rise if the inventory is digested [23]. 3.4.4 Black - Iron Ore: The demand is supported, but the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [24]. - Steel: Similar to the key variety analysis, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term trend is restricted by various factors, and attention should be paid to future supply and iron - water production [26]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The US soybean production is expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish. The impact of the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping event has weakened [28]. - Edible Oils: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is lower than expected, but the market is under short - term pressure [29]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory but may be dragged down by processing sugar [30]. - Cotton: The US cotton price has fallen, and the domestic cotton price may be volatile and slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The freight rate has declined, and the 10 - contract price is at a deep discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of other shipping companies [32].