铁矿石周度策略报告：铁水高位难降，支撑铁矿价格-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. However, the uncertainty of macro - policies' impact on the resilience of hot metal should be noted. It is expected that the short - term ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [2][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - Futures market: As of August 14, the price of the iron ore main contract I2601 declined this week, closing at 775 yuan/ton, with a position of 452,000 lots, an increase of 116,000 lots [7]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports showed mixed trends. The price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port was 880 yuan/ton, the price of 62.5% BRBF decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 807 yuan/ton, the price of 61.5% PB fines increased by 1 yuan/ton to 771 yuan/ton, the price of 61% Jinbuba fines was 755 yuan/ton, and the price of 56.5% Super Special fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton. For domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 810 yuan/ton, the price of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan increased by 5 yuan/ton to 788 yuan/ton, and the price of 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 10 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, and the spread changes were relatively small [14]. - Futures - spot and futures monthly spreads: This week, the main 2601 contract of iron ore had a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 of iron ore was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 of iron ore was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [18]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of August 8, Australia's weekly shipment was 1.5183 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipment was 0.7305 million tons, with a total of 2.2488 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Overseas ore shipments are at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years, and future domestic supply is sufficient [24]. - Domestic ore capacity utilization rate: As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mines nationwide was 64.78%, a month - on - month increase of 2.72% [25]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 25.14 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 US dollars; the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 10.15 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 US dollars [26]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of August 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, an increase of 340 tons compared with last week and an increase of 118,900 tons compared with the same period last year. With the increase in steel mill hot metal production, the daily consumption of imported ores by sample steel mills this week rebounded by 370 tons to 298,520 tons. Moreover, the short - term decline in iron ore prices accelerated steel mill purchases. This week, the inventory of imported ores in steel mills increased significantly by 123,060 tons to 9.1364 million tons, reaching a new high since May [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 64 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 1.31783 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,970 tons. The average proportion of imported ores used in sinter was 86.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The average tax - free hot metal cost of steel mills was 2,302 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton. The total inventory of imported iron ores at 45 ports nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 13.81927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,670 tons, an increase of 12,820 tons; the number of ships at ports was 93, a decrease of 12 [31]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Recommendations - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and the arrivals also decreased synchronously, with the overall supply tightening month - on - month. In terms of demand, the hot metal output increased slightly, but the increase was not large, and the iron ore demand still showed resilience. In terms of inventory, the port clearance volume increased significantly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory remained basically unchanged. In general, the recent supply of iron ore has tightened, while the demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand fundamentals are currently stable. In the short term, steel mill profits are expected to remain at a good level, so the short - term hot metal production is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the price. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in the iron ore 2601 contract, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [36].