国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: The origin has strong supply and demand, and the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2]. - Soybean: It will rebound and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a range [2]. - Sugar: It will mainly consolidate within a range [2]. - Cotton: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2]. - Eggs: It will fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Hogs: The spot market is weak [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 9,394 yuan/ton (up 1.08%) and 9,658 yuan/ton (up 2.81%) respectively. Soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.26%) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests of both decreased [4]. - News: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% compared to the same period in July. US July soybean crush reached a record high, and the soybean oil inventory was slightly lower than expected [5][7]. - Trend Strength: Palm oil: 1; Soybean oil: 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 3,137 yuan/ton (down 0.85%) and 3,142 yuan/ton (up 0.16%) respectively. DCE soybean 2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 4,056 yuan/ton (down 0.37%) and 4,068 yuan/ton (up 0.59%) respectively. Spot prices in different regions had slight changes, and the trading volume decreased while the inventory was not available [9]. - News: On August 15, CBOT soybeans rose due to active short - covering. The US July soybean crush reached a record high, but new - crop export demand was weak [9][11]. - Trend Strength: Both soybean meal and soybean: +1 (only for the day - session main contract price on the report day) [11]. Corn - Fundamentals: C2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,266 yuan/ton (down 0.74%) and 2,266 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. C2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,190 yuan/ton (down 0.77%) and 2,187 yuan/ton (down 0.14%) respectively. Trading volumes and open interests of different contracts changed, and the total market's trading volume and open interest increased [13]. - News: Northern corn port prices were stable, and some container prices increased. Southern prices were stable or slightly down [14]. - Trend Strength: 0 [15]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.47 cents/pound (down 0.11%), the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures main contract price was 5,664 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The 91 - spread was 76 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and the 15 - spread was 42 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [16]. - News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall decreased. China's June sugar imports were 420,000 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global and domestic sugar supply and demand in different seasons [16][17][18]. - Trend Strength: 0 [19]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 14,120 yuan/ton (down 0.25%) and 14,105 yuan/ton (down 0.11% - 0.20%) respectively. Spot prices in different regions had slight changes, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased [20]. - News: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to demand concerns [21][22]. - Trend Strength: 0 [25]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,184 yuan/500 kg (down 0.84%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,575 yuan/500 kg (up 0.06%). Spot prices in different regions were stable, and the prices of related feed and livestock also had slight changes [27]. - Trend Strength: 0 [27]. Hogs - Fundamentals: Henan's spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and futures prices of different contracts had different changes. Trading volumes and open interests of different contracts decreased or increased, and the basis and spreads also changed [31]. - News: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The short - term support and resistance levels of LH2509 were 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Trend Strength: - 1 [32]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: PK510's closing price was 8,058 yuan/ton (down 1.03%), and PK511's closing price was 7,884 yuan/ton (down 1.40%). Spot prices in different regions were stable, and the trading volume and open interest of the whole market had slight changes [35]. - News: New peanuts are gradually coming onto the market in some regions, and the prices are mainly determined by moisture and quality. Some old peanuts' prices are stable or slightly weak [36]. - Trend Strength: 0 [38].