渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.18）-20250818

Macroeconomic Research - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased following disappointing non-farm payroll data and lower-than-expected CPI growth, although there are contradictions in the inflation data [2] - Domestic economic indicators show that both production and demand faced pressure in July, with investment decline being the most significant drag on domestic demand [3] - The report notes that while CPI and PPI growth remains low year-on-year, there has been a slight improvement in month-on-month growth due to factors such as holiday travel and international commodity price changes [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market has shown weak performance, with the yield curve steepening, influenced by factors such as the pause in US-China tariff implementation and rising risk appetite in the equity market [7] - The report indicates that the issuance of government bonds has increased, with a total issuance of 49 bonds amounting to 783.2 billion yuan during the reporting period [6] - The liquidity remains loose, with the central bank's net absorption exceeding 500 billion yuan, and the report anticipates limited disturbances to the bond market in the near term [8] Industry Research - The medical device sector is gaining attention, with a focus on opportunities within the related industrial chain, driven by recent policy adjustments in the national medical insurance and drug lists [9] - The report mentions several companies making significant progress, such as Rongchang Bio achieving primary research endpoints in clinical trials and Fuhong Hanlin's drug registration application being accepted [10] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has been positive, with the industry index showing a 1.97% increase during the reporting week, outperforming other sub-sectors [10]