中辉期货豆粕早报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term Bullish: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - Short - term Bullish (Trend): Palm Oil [1] - Cautiously Bullish: Cotton, Red Dates, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: In a situation where fundamental factors are weak and Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support, it is advisable to view it as a large - range market. After the hype of events cools down, the price has recently dropped slightly. With the support of Sino - US trade tariffs, it is mainly recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to position and risk control when chasing long positions [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a reduction in the new - year yield of Canadian rapeseed. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with the improvement of Sino - Australian trade, have cooled down the market hype. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips and be cautious when chasing long positions [1][6]. - Palm Oil: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [1][8]. - Cotton: The short - term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply problem before the new cotton is listed. The fast de - stocking speed and the lack of import quotas provide support for the bottom. The downstream will enter the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market, and orders have started to improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and previous low - position long positions can consider phased profit - taking [1][12]. - Red Dates: It is initially estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 50 - 580,000 tons, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the market hype period around the opening price is relatively long, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated recently. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][15]. - Live Pigs: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the previous pressure of second - fattening slaughter and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot end. The "weak reality, strong expectation" situation is still obvious. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and attention can be paid to establishing long positions in the far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3096.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% [2]. - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 701,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 549,700 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,100 tons [3]. - Analysis: The continuous rise in US soybean prices has led to a decline in the Brazilian soybean premium. The procurement of imported soybeans in September in China has been fully completed, and more than half of the procurement for October has also been completed. The downstream feed enterprises are mainly cautious and wait - and - see [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.21% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% [5]. - Inventory: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,800 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons [5]. - Analysis: From August to October, the import of rapeseed is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% Canadian rapeseed meal import tariff and other factors support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts pressure on the price [6]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the previous day; the national average price was 9418 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% [7]. - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 599,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,600 tons [8]. - Analysis: The export data in the first 15 days of this month is good, which boosts the market to reach a new high. The trend is still mainly to go long on dips [8]. Cotton - Market Situation: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 0.25% to 14,120 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.01% to 15,222 yuan/ton [10]. - International Situation: The excellent and good rate of US cotton decreased by 2% to 53% week - on - week, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area has recovered to 82%. The newly sown cotton area in India is 3.13 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7% [10]. - Domestic Situation: The new cotton in Xinjiang has mostly entered the boll - opening stage, and the output is expected to increase to over 7.4 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has decreased by 150,600 tons to 1.8561 million tons [11]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The main contract CJ2601 increased by 0.74% to 11,545 yuan/ton [14]. - Production Area Situation: The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. It is estimated that the new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years [14]. - Inventory Situation: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98 tons [13]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.18% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply Situation: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [17]. - Demand Situation: It is currently the consumption off - season, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [17].