对二甲苯：供增需减，但终端需求改善，短期震荡市，PTA，弱现实强预期，月差反套

Report Summary Report Date August 18, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment outlooks of various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own specific market conditions and trends, with different investment suggestions and trend intensities [2][11][12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, but terminal demand is improving. The processing fee is downward, but the improvement in terminal demand may limit the downside space of the single - sided price. The trend intensity is 0 [11]. - PTA: Demand is improving month - on - month, and the single - sided price has turned into a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month spread is expected to continue the reverse spread strategy. The polyester start - up rate is increasing, and the supply is relatively stable. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - MEG: Supply and demand are both increasing. The single - sided price of ethylene glycol is in a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month spread should be operated within the range of - 50 to 0, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy can be adopted. The overall supply is at a high level, and the inventory is accumulating. The trend intensity is 0 [12][13]. Rubber - Rubber: It is in a volatile operation. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have increased, and the spot price of some varieties has changed slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic Rubber: The upside space is narrowing. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals weakens the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain. In the medium term, it is still in a range - bound market. The trend intensity is 0 [19][21]. Asphalt - Asphalt: The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory in both factories and social warehouses has decreased. It follows the oil price in a range - bound market. The trend intensity is 0 [22][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE: It is in a range - bound market. The cost is decreasing due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply pressure is increasing, but the demand is expected to improve in the later stage. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year and has stopped accumulating. The trend intensity is 0 [37][38]. PP - PP: The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing. However, there is still uncertainty in the cost, and the low - level short - selling should be vigilant. The trend intensity is 0 [41][42]. Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: It should be treated bullishly. The demand is continuously expanding, especially the demand from the alumina industry. The export support is still strong, but the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit the profit expansion. The trend intensity is 1 [47][48]. Pulp - Pulp: It is in a volatile operation. The port inventory is decreasing, and the international and domestic pulp mills have raised prices. The downstream product capacity utilization rate is rising, and the demand provides stable support. The trend intensity is 0 [50][53][54]. Glass - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The trend intensity is - 1 [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol: It is under short - term downward pressure in a volatile market, but the downside space is narrowing. The port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the 01 contract is weak in the short term. In the medium term, it is still in a volatile pattern. The trend intensity is - 1 [58][61]. Urea - Urea: It is in a range - bound operation. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the domestic demand is weak. In the short term, the market is reluctant to short - sell at the support level. In the long term, it is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the policy is clear. The trend intensity is 0 [63][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene: The profit is being compressed. The market is mainly volatile, with strong downstream bottom - fishing sentiment in the short term, but the continuous replenishment power in the peak season is insufficient. The trend intensity is 0 [67][68]. Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The price is oscillating at a low level, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The trend intensity is - 1 [69][71]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term valuation is reasonable, and it is in a volatile operation. - Propylene: Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend intensity of both is 0 [74][80]. PVC - PVC: The trend is weak. The production is at a high level, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the export competitiveness is affected by the anti - dumping tax. The strategy should be bearish, and the opportunity of long caustic soda and short PVC can be concerned. The trend intensity is - 1 [83][84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The futures price has a slight rebound, and the short - term weakness continues. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price has risen, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend intensity of both is 0 [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in a volatile consolidation, and the short positions in the October contract can be held as appropriate. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the shipping index have declined. The trend intensity is not provided in the text [88].