Report Overview - The report is a weekly futures report on soybean meal and soybean oil from August 18 - 22, 2025 [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - Soybean meal futures are expected to continue a wide - range oscillation pattern. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. The current domestic soybean meal inventory is still high, and the supply surplus situation is hard to reverse in the short term. However, there are expectations of tightened supply for new - season US soybeans, high export premiums for Brazilian soybeans, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade [6] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract was expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with a strong bullish bias in funds. The M2601 contract may continue a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 3000 - 3250 [10] 1.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is strongly bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 87.8. The capital energy is basically stable at - 4.3, but there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 99.1 [13] 1.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][21][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - Soybean oil futures are in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation phase. In the 32nd week, soybean oil production decreased slightly, but due to hot weather, demand was suppressed, leading to accumulated inventory pressure. However, the USDA report cut US soybean planting area, and high Brazilian soybean premiums and fluctuations in competing oils increased cost support [29] - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [29] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a bullish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue a bullish run, with attention to possible short - term oscillations and corrections, and an expected operating range of 8100 - 8500 [32] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with a slightly bearish bias in funds. The Y2601 contract may continue a bullish run, and short - term oscillations and corrections should be noted [33] 2.3.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is slightly bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 33.7. The main capital has a small inflow with a capital energy of 28.5, and there is a high risk of market reversal with a multi - empty divergence of 98.7 [37] 2.3.4 Related Data - Data includes weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly soybean arrivals, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean mill operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian soybean premiums. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][46][54]
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250818
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-18 02:48