宝城期货橡胶早报-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5] - Core Logic: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic production areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.25% to 15,820 yuan/ton. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7] - Core Logic: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. The domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the synthetic rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.77% to 11,800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [7]