USDA报告偏利多，连粕震荡收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]