宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices are oscillating downward, with the absolute price down 0.5% week-on-week to $827/ton CFR by Friday, and the weekly average price down 3% to $830/ton CFR. Two 800,000-ton PX units in South China will restart soon, increasing supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors. PX is currently in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, with social inventory decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA units. However, after a significant drop in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operations [2]. - PTA prices rose on Friday, driven by the increase in crude oil prices on Thursday and the shutdown of a 2-million-ton PTA unit in Hainan on Friday. Spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuates within a limited range. Currently, PTA processing fees are in a low range, and unplanned unit maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected commissioning of new units on the supply side and the lackluster demand during the off-season. Planned maintenance in August is being carried out as scheduled, with few unplanned maintenance activities, and supply remains abundant. There are no unplanned PTA unit shutdowns, and the spot supply is sufficient, resulting in a weak rebound of the spot basis. Polyester production cuts are currently on hold, and the operation remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment. From the perspective of industrial chain profits, the strong driving force from the cost side has led to a re - distribution of profits in the industrial chain towards the raw material segment. PTA will move forward in an oscillatory manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,870 - 5,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures are oscillating within a narrow range. Most suppliers of bottle chips have kept their quotes stable, and the downstream end - users have low purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a light trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, the operation of bottle chip suppliers has been stable, and the market spot supply is relatively abundant. The downstream end - users have slowed down their purchasing pace, and the market sentiment is cautious [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in an oscillatory manner. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Crude Oil: On August 15, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $62.80/barrel, down 1.81% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $65.85/barrel, down 1.48% from the previous value [1]. - Upstream Products: The spot price (middle price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $572.50/ton on August 15, 2025, up 0.26% from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $684.50/ton, up 0.29% from the previous value; the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China Main Port was $827.00/ton, up 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - PTA Futures and Spot: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,716 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous value. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,676 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,672 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,654 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous value. The CCFEI price index of refined terephthalic acid PTA domestic market was 4,659 yuan/ton, up 0.28% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of PTA overseas market on August 14 was $619/ton, down 1.28% from the previous value. The near - far month spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 57 yuan/ton [1]. - PX Futures and Spot: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,688 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,682 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous value. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,756 yuan/ton, up 1.14% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,740 yuan/ton, up 0.90% from the previous value. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,577 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous value. The spot price (middle price) of p - xylene CFR China Taiwan was $829/ton, up 0.48% from the previous value; the spot price (middle price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $804/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The PXN spread was $254.50/ton, up 0.59% from the previous value; the PX - MX spread was $142.50/ton, up 0.71% from the previous value; the basis was - 111 yuan/ton [1]. - PR Futures and Spot: On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,896 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,892 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous value. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,848 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,846 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous value. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value; the market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the South China market was 5,930 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value. The basis in the East China market was 4 yuan/ton, and the basis in the South China market was 34 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Products: On August 15, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,125 yuan/ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan/ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan/ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,870 yuan/ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain on August 15, 2025, was 80.38%, with no change from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, down 2.34% from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester plants was 86.88%, with no change from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle chip plants was 71.93%, with no change from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, with no change from the previous value [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On August 15, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36.32%, down 21.58% from the previous value; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 49.62%, up 7.21% from the previous value; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 53.57%, down 26.02% from the previous value [1]. Device Information - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Ningbo Taihua started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; a 2.25 - million - ton PTA unit of Yisheng Dalian started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; a 2 - million - ton PTA unit of Yisheng Hainan is planned to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 15 [2].